End of the Biogas Incentive: Which Path Is Best?

Plants built between 2008 and 2013 under the all-inclusive tariff established by the 2012 Ministerial Decree—up to 280 €/MWh for fifteen years—are phasing out of the incentive program between 2023 and 2028. Upon expiration, the energy will return to market price, with the BIO-PMG guaranteeing a minimum threshold: a transitional measure designed to facilitate the phase-out and steer the sector toward biomethane. The jump in revenue is significant and requires a decision. Here you’ll find a comparison of the five options, with each one detailed below; then we’ll discuss them based on your plant’s specific figures.

A Comparison of the Five Approaches
Option
When It Makes Sense
What does it entail?
Continue with BIO-PMG
When It Makes Sense: An Efficient System, Alternatives Not Yet Ready
What this entails: Market-based revenue with a guaranteed minimum threshold, set to decline starting in 2029
When It Makes Sense: Suitable System—Size, Molds, Nearby Gas Line
What It Entails: Investment in millions; PNRR support only for those who already have an agreement
Revamping or Repowering
When It Makes Sense: An outdated system, but with many years of operation ahead of it
What it entails: Targeted capital expenditures on the cogeneration unit, with a payback period within its remaining useful life
Transfer
When it makes sense to continueis not part of the owners' plans
What It Involves: Immediate Payout, Value Based on Remaining Life, and Conversion
Decommissioning
When It Makes Sense: No Alternative Holds Up When You Look at the Numbers
What is involved: Restoration costs and digestate, with possible recovery of components

The Options in Detail

Each approach makes sense only under certain conditions related to infrastructure, the market, and timing. Here’s what each one entails, with the key figures.

Continue with BIO-PMG

At the end of the tariff period, the energy is sold on the market, and the BIO-PMG—the Guaranteed Minimum Prices for biogas and biomass, updated by ARERA via Resolution 174/2026—ensures a minimum return. Starting July 1, 2026, the component covering fixed costs is linked to operating hours, with a cap on equivalent hours per half-year. No cuts are planned for 2026, as expenditures remain below the system thresholds; the budget rises to a peak in 2028 and then declines, with reductions expected starting in 2029. This is the simplest path in the immediate term, but by design it is transitional: it makes sense while the plant is still efficient and other options are not yet ready, but not as a long-term solution.

Conversion to biomethane

Refining biogas and feeding it into the grid as biomethane is often the most economically sound option for those whose electricity incentive program has ended. The dedicated PNRR support program—a subsidy managed by the GSE that includes both a grant and a feed-in tariff—closed its application phase in June 2026: those with a concession agreement must complete the project within the specified timeframe, typically within about two years; for others, the economic viability is assessed based on the fundamentals of renewable gas. It is not cheap: the upgrading unit alone costs between 1 and 2.5 million euros, and the complete conversion of an agricultural plant runs into the millions. It requires eligibility based on plant size, feedstocks, and proximity to the gas grid. For more details, see the biomethane conversion page.

Revamping or Repowering

When a plant has aged but still has years of operation ahead of it, we perform upgrades on the cogenerator and its components to restore performance, efficiency, and reliability. This is a targeted capital expenditure (Capex) that we evaluate based on actual returns: for a plant nearing the end of its incentive period, the payback must occur within a short timeframe. Some of these modernization projects were eligible for funding under the PNRR, along with conversions, for projects submitted by June 2026. It makes sense when the numbers show that it’s worth keeping the plant operational—not as an automatic measure.

Transfer

Selling the plant is a viable option in a market where biogas is one of the driving forces behind acquisitions in Italy. Buyers include industrial and financial operators, funds, utilities, and oil & gas companies, which are often interested in acquiring plants specifically to convert them to biomethane. The price depends more on the remaining term of the incentive, the condition of the plant, and its suitability for conversion than on its rated capacity. We prepare the sale from the seller’s perspective: a technical and economic assessment of the asset, an estimate of its remaining incentive period and associated risks, to approach negotiations with a solid and well-documented valuation.

Decommissioning

When none of the other options are financially viable, closing the plant and restoring the site is a legitimate choice, to be approached in the same way as the others. The costs of decommissioning and site restoration, the management of storage facilities and digestate within the constraints of the Nitrates Directive, and the potential recovery value of components must all be taken into account. We evaluate this alongside the other options, using the same criteria, so that the decision to close is based on the numbers.

What do we look at to make a decision?

The decision is not a matter of principle but of numbers: four factors carry the most weight.

System Status and Performance

Cogeneration efficiency, maintenance costs, and reliability: how much it can still produce and at what cost.

Eligibility for Conversion

The size, available feedstock, and proximity to the gas grid determine whether biomethane is a viable option.

Long-Term Value

Comparing options over multiple years: What seems like a good deal now may not be the best choice in the long run.

Restrictions and Contracts

Biomass, digestate, and supplies affect every option and must be evaluated before making a decision.

How We Support You

We start with a technical and economic assessment of the system, compare the options based on actual figures, and work with the client to define the most sound strategy. If a decision is made to proceed, we guide the client through the implementation process, using the same team that conducted the assessment.

Let's talk about it

An initial assessment of the facility once the incentive period ends.

Tell us about the current status of the plant: years in operation, status of the incentive, and condition of the cogeneration unit. We’ll respond with an initial technical and economic assessment—provided confidentially—that compares the options that are actually feasible.